By Erin Ayers, Front Page News
After four years of falling cyber rates, the U.S. market does show signs of a gradual shift emerging, but buyers still have the upper hand in achieving price cuts at renewal, according to a panel of experts speaking at the Zywave Horizon Cyber Risk Conference in New York City.
“The stabilization over the next year is going to be critical,” said Rob Malone, U.S. head of cyber for AXA XL. “I feel very confident about that and optimistic that that will probably happen. And I don’t think anyone wants any sort of shock … where you see rates go [up] 50, 100%. So, I’m optimistic.”
The claims driving that pricing shift, he added, are “very real” with ransomware making up 40% of frequency and privacy claims “out of control.” At the same time, capacity has expanded and coverage has broadened, Malone noted.
Emily Licitra, senior vice president of professional liability for Arch Insurance, commented that the market is now at an “interesting crossroads.” Publicly available data on the cyber market suggests a combined ratio inching closer to 100%, the break-even point that should compel action on the part of the market.
“Whether or not the market actually responds to that is another question,” she said, adding, “I don’t think we’re at a place where we’re going to see an abrupt turn to some of those rates. I do think there’s going to be a gradual shift in that market momentum. In particular in the large account space, we are seeing the market start to find that floor a little bit.”
Some segments of the market could see a “truer hard market,” Licitra said, citing the unique challenges for certain industry sectors like healthcare and law firms with poorer loss experience.
According to Steven Robinson, national cyber practice leader for wholesaler RPS, cyber insurers are “willing to walk away from risks in a way we hadn’t seen previously” and putting out flat renewals and slight increases in certain classes of businesses.
“I see that as a good sign in terms of just more market maturity,” he said. However, newer market players remain willing to write business at much lower prices, leaving brokers to strike the right balance with clients.
Britt A. Eilhardt, senior managing director for cyber at Brown & Brown, said buyers currently have a “sunny outlook” on cyber.
“And they should,” she added, noting that many large accounts have fallen to pricing levels not seen since before the 2020-2021 hard market. However, the long-term soft market dynamic puts underwriters in a tough position, per Eilhardt.
“On the brokerage side, we are playing the role of therapists with underwriters more than we ever have before,” she said, adding, “There’s just a lot of pain on the underwriting side, I think, from many years of having dealt with this, and not wanting to walk away from business, having had a longstanding relationship with an insured, but knowing that this is really getting to a point of infeasibility.”
That said, insureds have taken advantage of the capacity in the market, “thoughtfully” over the past four years by buying up limits where it makes sense, Eilhardt said. Asked by moderator Brian Lewis of Lockton Re if the market will support $1 billion in limits, she agreed the capacity is there.
“They can get that limit if they want that limit. Yes, absolutely. I think there’s absolutely the capacity out there, no question,” Eilhardt said.
Along with price, insureds have zeroed in on coverage, according to Eilhardt. There are opportunities for improvement right now, she said, for “substantive coverage baked into the policy” rather than sublimited add-ons or “flashy” endorsements.
“The cyber market is still very much, I feel, the wild west in terms of coverage,” Eilhardt said. “When you think of other insurance lines, those insurance lines are … relatively straightforward in terms of how those policy forms are written. Cyber continues to evolve, continues to add coverages — at least in the market we’re in — and I think insurers are aware of that, but there’s absolutely still opportunity, especially when you really dig into policies, to see what can be improved there.”
AXA XL’s Malone agreed, commenting that clarifying coverage is just as important as expanding it. Recent cyber events have shown that the gap between what has happened and what could possibly happen is “very, very wide” and policyholders are “exploring more of those possibilities” with their coverage asks, he said.
Now is the time “to lean in and innovate,” according to Lewis. While “coverage creep,” deteriorating rates, and rising losses aren’t a recipe for long-term success, the market appears to be adapting well, he added.
“That’s a sign of a healthy market … It’s not a sign of a market that is just running wild and so soft that doesn’t know what to do with itself, so it’s just basically throwing on coverage,” Lewis said. “While the market is going to always be volatile, where the cyber underwriting community gets it right is they approach these challenges head on, and they try to figure out the right way to cover the risk and underwrite to the risk.”
The 2026 Zywave Horizon Cyber Risk Conference, held on Thursday, Oct. 29, kicked off with the message that “cyber has a relevancy you can’t ignore” from QBE North America CEO Julie Wood. Want more information? Subscribe to Cyber Front Page News for detailed coverage of the day’s panels, speakers, and to be the first to learn about our upcoming events.
