HR Midyear Market Outlook

Workforce, well-being and payroll trends for brokers advising HR leaders through the rest of 2026.

Workforce dynamics are shifting faster than most HR strategies were built to handle. Mercer’s 2026 Global Talent Trends report found that 99% of the 825 C-suite leaders and 1,650 HR leaders surveyed expect AI to drive headcount reductions over the next two years, while 74% of employees have experienced burnout and employee confidence in the labor market sits near record lows. These pressures are landing at the same time, and they compound each other.

At the midyear point of 2026, several forces are reshaping how HR teams attract, support and retain talent. For example:

• AI is redirecting work rather than eliminating it uniformly, as job postings for occupations dominated by structured, repetitive tasks dropped 13% after ChatGPT’s launch while postings for roles requiring analytical, technical or creative work rose 20%
• Gig work is moving from the fringe to the mainstream, with 39% of all U.S. workers now freelancing and analysts projecting that freelancers will make up more than half of the U.S. workforce by 2027
• Burnout is showing up as a measurable cost, with burnout-related productivity losses and turnover costing organizations $322 billion annually and 40% of burned-out employees reporting they are physically present but mentally checked out at work

This report compiles midyear developments across five areas shaping the second half of the year: AI’s effect on the labor market, the growth of gig work, employee burnout, employee confidence in the labor market and the extra biweekly payroll period facing employers in 2026. Each section outlines what is driving the trend, what it means for the workforce and the specific steps employers should take before year-end.

As always, employers who work with trusted advisors to stay on top of evolving workforce trends and adjust their talent, well-being and payroll strategies accordingly will set themselves up for success.

Download the 2026 Midyear HR Market Trends report today.