2026 Commercial Insurance Midyear Market Outlook

Line-by-line pricing and coverage trends for brokers navigating a market that’s softening in some places and hardening in others.

After years of a prolonged hard market, commercial insurance is finally softening broadly for the first time since 2019. In the first half of 2026, this softening has largely materialized, but conditions aren’t uniform across every coverage line. The casualty segment remains an outlier, with rate increases still climbing for excess coverage layers.

At the midyear point of 2026, several major cross-cutting forces, like tariff-driven inflation and social inflation, are shaping nearly every line of coverage under review. For example:

• Tariff-driven inflation for imported goods is raising property construction expenses, vehicle repair costs and medical supply prices, affecting claims trends across commercial property, auto and workers’ compensation.
• Social inflation continues to drive up costs across CGL, auto liability and umbrella/excess casualty, evidenced by nuclear verdicts that hit a 15-year high in 2024, up 52% in frequency and 116% in severity year over year.
• Widespread AI adoption is creating new exposures across D&O, EPL and cyber, prompting many insurers to deploy stricter underwriting standards and scrutinize AI-related risks more closely at renewal.

This report compiles midyear developments for eight primary lines of coverage: commercial property, commercial auto liability, CGL, workers’ compensation, umbrella/excess casualty, cyber, D&O and EPL. It summarizes each segment’s current pricing and capacity patterns, highlights the latest market trends and cost drivers, and outlines what policyholders can expect for the remainder of 2026.

As always, policyholders who work with trusted insurance professionals to stay on top of evolving market trends and adjust their risk management strategies and coverage selections accordingly will set themselves up for success.

Download the 2026 Commercial Insurance Midyear Market Outlook today.